Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Exeter City win with a probability of 40.16%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 33.79% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Exeter City win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.62%) and 2-0 (6.87%). The likeliest Newport County win was 0-1 (8.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.
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