With both clubs entering this contest on the back of surprise home defeats, there will be a certain acceptance that avoiding defeat on Saturday would not be the worst result. With that in mind, we would not be surprised to see a low-scoring draw played out at The New Lawn.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Exeter City win with a probability of 36.86%. A win for Forest Green Rovers had a probability of 36.68% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Exeter City win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.16%) and 0-2 (6.31%). The likeliest Forest Green Rovers win was 1-0 (9.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.58%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Exeter City would win this match.
-0.36) 
0.51) 
