Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MK Dons win with a probability of 62.77%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 16.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a MK Dons win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.55%) and 2-1 (9.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.81%), while for a Cheltenham Town win it was 0-1 (4.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.
-0.25) 
0.11) 
