Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 47.42%. A win for Plymouth Argyle had a probability of 28.53% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9%) and 2-0 (7.54%). The likeliest Plymouth Argyle win was 1-2 (7.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.23%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.
0.01) 
-0.02) 
