Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aalesund win with a probability of 47.76%. A win for Sarpsborg 08 had a probability of 29.83% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aalesund win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.77%) and 2-0 (6.35%). The likeliest Sarpsborg 08 win was 1-2 (7.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood.
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