While Heracles are enjoying their best run of form this season, Ajax have been sensational over the last couple of months and have not been beaten in a league game at the Johan Cruijff ArenA in well over a year.
With one eye on their Europa League second-leg playoff tie, the hosts are likely to make a few changes for this match, but we feel they will still be too good for the visitors in this one.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 79.95%. A draw had a probability of 13% and a win for Heracles had a probability of 7.06%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.86%) and 1-0 (8.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.12%), while for a Heracles win it was 0-1 (2.22%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
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