SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 45.14%. A win for PSV Eindhoven had a probability of 32.24% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.48%) and 2-0 (5.91%). The likeliest PSV Eindhoven win was 1-2 (7.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.81%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ajax | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
45.14% ( 0.51) | 22.61% ( -0.09) | 32.24% ( -0.42) |
| Both teams to score 65.38% ( 0.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.77% ( 0.26) | 35.23% ( -0.26) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.75% ( 0.28) | 57.24% ( -0.29) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.83% ( 0.29) | 16.16% ( -0.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.37% ( 0.53) | 45.62% ( -0.54) |
| PSV Eindhoven Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.98% ( -0.11) | 22.01% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.67% ( -0.17) | 55.33% ( 0.16) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ajax | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
| 2-1 @ 8.94% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 6.48% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 5.91% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 5.43% ( 0.07)3-2 @ 4.11% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 3.59% ( 0.06)4-1 @ 2.48% ( 0.06)4-2 @ 1.87% ( 0.04)4-0 @ 1.64% ( 0.04)4-3 @ 0.95% ( 0.02)5-1 @ 0.9% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.84% Total : 45.14% | 1-1 @ 9.81% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 6.77% ( 0)0-0 @ 3.56% ( -0.05)3-3 @ 2.07% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.4% Total : 22.61% | 1-2 @ 7.43% ( -0.07) 0-1 @ 5.39% ( -0.09)0-2 @ 4.08% ( -0.08)1-3 @ 3.75% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 3.42% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 2.06% ( -0.05)1-4 @ 1.42% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 1.29% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.42% Total : 32.24% |
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