SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Go Ahead Eagles win with a probability of 68.34%. A draw had a probability of 18% and a win for Heracles had a probability of 13.64%.
The most likely scoreline for a Go Ahead Eagles win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.71%) and 1-0 (8.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.36%), while for a Heracles win it was 1-2 (3.92%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Go Ahead Eagles would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Go Ahead Eagles | Draw | Heracles |
68.34% ( 0.28) | 18.02% ( -0.12) | 13.64% ( -0.16) |
| Both teams to score 54.87% ( -0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.23% ( 0.21) | 36.77% ( -0.21) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.07% ( 0.23) | 58.93% ( -0.23) |
| Go Ahead Eagles Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.19% ( 0.13) | 9.81% ( -0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 67.41% ( 0.29) | 32.59% ( -0.29) |
| Heracles Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.84% ( -0.09) | 39.16% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.13% ( -0.08) | 75.87% ( 0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Go Ahead Eagles | Draw | Heracles |
| 2-0 @ 10.35% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.71% ( -0.02)1-0 @ 8.92% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 8.01% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 7.51% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 4.65% ( 0.05)4-1 @ 4.36% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 3.52% ( 0)5-0 @ 2.16% ( 0.04)4-2 @ 2.04% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 2.03% ( 0.03)5-2 @ 0.95% ( 0.01)Other @ 4.12% Total : 68.33% | 1-1 @ 8.36% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 4.55% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 3.84% ( -0.04)3-3 @ 1.1% ( -0)Other @ 0.16% Total : 18.02% | 1-2 @ 3.92% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 3.6% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 1.69% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 1.42% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1.23% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.79% Total : 13.64% |
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