SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 68.66%. A draw had a probability of 16.7% and a win for RKC Waalwijk had a probability of 14.61%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.02%) and 3-1 (7.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.05%), while for a RKC Waalwijk win it was 1-2 (4.02%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ajax | Draw | RKC Waalwijk |
68.66% ( -0.03) | 16.73% ( 0.04) | 14.61% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 62.99% ( -0.2) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 72.12% ( -0.24) | 27.88% ( 0.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 51.4% ( -0.29) | 48.59% ( 0.29) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.56% ( -0.06) | 7.44% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 73.23% ( -0.17) | 26.76% ( 0.17) |
| RKC Waalwijk Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.05% ( -0.17) | 31.95% ( 0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 31.6% ( -0.2) | 68.4% ( 0.19) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ajax | Draw | RKC Waalwijk |
| 2-1 @ 9.16% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 8.02% ( 0.06)3-1 @ 7.93% ( -0)3-0 @ 6.95% ( 0.03)1-0 @ 6.18% ( 0.07)4-1 @ 5.15% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 4.52% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 4.51% ( 0)4-2 @ 2.94% ( -0.03)5-1 @ 2.68% ( -0.02)5-0 @ 2.35% ( -0.01)5-2 @ 1.53% ( -0.02)6-1 @ 1.16% ( -0.01)4-3 @ 1.12% ( -0.01)6-0 @ 1.02% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.46% Total : 68.66% | 1-1 @ 7.05% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 5.22% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 2.38% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 1.72% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.36% Total : 16.73% | 1-2 @ 4.02% ( 0) 0-1 @ 2.71% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 1.99% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 1.55% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 1.53% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.81% Total : 14.61% |
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