SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 49.66%. A win for AEK Athens had a probability of 28.58% and a draw had a probability of 21.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.33%) and 2-0 (6.26%). The likeliest AEK Athens win was 1-2 (6.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.26%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ajax | Draw | AEK Athens |
49.66% ( -0) | 21.77% ( 0) | 28.58% ( 0) |
| Both teams to score 66.25% ( -0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.85% ( -0.01) | 33.14% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 45.11% ( -0.01) | 54.89% ( 0.01) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.18% ( -0) | 13.82% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 58.83% ( -0.01) | 41.17% ( 0.01) |
| AEK Athens Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.87% ( -0) | 23.13% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.01% ( -0) | 56.99% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ajax | Draw | AEK Athens |
| 2-1 @ 9.16% 1-0 @ 6.33% ( 0)2-0 @ 6.26% ( 0)3-1 @ 6.05% ( -0)3-2 @ 4.43% ( -0)3-0 @ 4.13% 4-1 @ 2.99% 4-2 @ 2.19% ( -0)4-0 @ 2.04% 5-1 @ 1.18% ( -0)4-3 @ 1.07% Other @ 3.83% Total : 49.66% | 1-1 @ 9.26% ( 0) 2-2 @ 6.71% 0-0 @ 3.2% ( 0)3-3 @ 2.16% ( -0)Other @ 0.44% Total : 21.77% | 1-2 @ 6.78% ( 0) 0-1 @ 4.68% ( 0)0-2 @ 3.43% 1-3 @ 3.31% 2-3 @ 3.27% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.67% 1-4 @ 1.21% 2-4 @ 1.2% Other @ 3.03% Total : 28.58% |
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