SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 86.38%. A draw had a probability of 9.4% and a win for RKC Waalwijk had a probability of 4.21%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 3-0 with a probability of 12.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.52%) and 4-0 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.45%), while for a RKC Waalwijk win it was 0-1 (1.41%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ajax | Draw | RKC Waalwijk |
86.38% ( 0.73) | 9.41% ( -0.46) | 4.21% ( -0.28) |
| Both teams to score 43.67% ( -0.18) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 72.58% ( 0.98) | 27.42% ( -0.98) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 51.98% ( 1.23) | 48.02% ( -1.23) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 95.75% ( 0.28) | 4.25% ( -0.29) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 82.33% ( 0.89) | 17.67% ( -0.9) |
| RKC Waalwijk Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 45.61% ( -0.33) | 54.39% ( 0.33) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 12.49% ( -0.2) | 87.51% ( 0.2) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ajax | Draw | RKC Waalwijk |
| 3-0 @ 12.13% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 11.52% ( -0.21)4-0 @ 9.58% ( 0.23)3-1 @ 7.39% ( -0.05)1-0 @ 7.3% ( -0.28)2-1 @ 7.02% ( -0.2)5-0 @ 6.05% ( 0.27)4-1 @ 5.84% ( 0.08)5-1 @ 3.69% ( 0.13)6-0 @ 3.19% ( 0.2)3-2 @ 2.25% ( -0.04)6-1 @ 1.94% ( 0.11)4-2 @ 1.78% ( 0.01)7-0 @ 1.44% ( 0.12)5-2 @ 1.12% ( 0.03)Other @ 4.13% Total : 86.36% | 1-1 @ 4.45% ( -0.22) 0-0 @ 2.31% ( -0.14)2-2 @ 2.14% ( -0.08)Other @ 0.52% Total : 9.41% | 0-1 @ 1.41% ( -0.1) 1-2 @ 1.35% ( -0.08)Other @ 1.45% Total : 4.21% |
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