SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 60.2%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for RKC Waalwijk had a probability of 19.42%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.71%) and 0-1 (8.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.25%), while for a RKC Waalwijk win it was 2-1 (5.23%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| RKC Waalwijk | Draw | Ajax |
19.42% ( 0.24) | 20.39% ( -0.06) | 60.2% ( -0.17) |
| Both teams to score 59.64% ( 0.68) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.22% ( 0.69) | 36.78% ( -0.68) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.05% ( 0.74) | 58.95% ( -0.74) |
| RKC Waalwijk Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.7% ( 0.64) | 32.3% ( -0.64) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.2% ( 0.72) | 68.8% ( -0.72) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.1% ( 0.17) | 11.9% ( -0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 62.76% ( 0.35) | 37.24% ( -0.34) |
| Score Analysis |
| RKC Waalwijk | Draw | Ajax |
| 2-1 @ 5.23% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 4.35% ( -0.07)2-0 @ 2.46% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.1% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 1.97% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 0.93% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.4% Total : 19.42% | 1-1 @ 9.25% ( -0.09) 2-2 @ 5.56% ( 0.08)0-0 @ 3.85% ( -0.13)3-3 @ 1.49% ( 0.06)Other @ 0.25% Total : 20.39% | 1-2 @ 9.84% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 8.71% ( -0.18)0-1 @ 8.18% ( -0.22)1-3 @ 6.98% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 6.18% ( -0.09)2-3 @ 3.95% ( 0.08)1-4 @ 3.72% ( 0.04)0-4 @ 3.29% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 2.1% ( 0.06)1-5 @ 1.58% ( 0.02)0-5 @ 1.4% ( -0)Other @ 4.28% Total : 60.2% |
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