SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 45.25%. A win for NEC had a probability of 32.07% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.58%) and 0-2 (5.98%). The likeliest NEC win was 2-1 (7.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Ajax in this match.
| Result | ||
| NEC | Draw | Ajax |
32.07% ( -0.47) | 22.67% ( -0.11) | 45.25% ( 0.57) |
| Both teams to score 65.08% ( 0.19) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.41% ( 0.34) | 35.58% ( -0.34) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.36% ( 0.37) | 57.64% ( -0.38) |
| NEC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.72% ( -0.1) | 22.28% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.27% ( -0.15) | 55.73% ( 0.14) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.73% ( 0.35) | 16.26% ( -0.36) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.2% ( 0.63) | 45.8% ( -0.64) |
| Score Analysis |
| NEC | Draw | Ajax |
| 2-1 @ 7.42% ( -0.08) 1-0 @ 5.44% ( -0.11)2-0 @ 4.08% ( -0.1)3-1 @ 3.71% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 3.37% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 2.04% ( -0.05)4-1 @ 1.39% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.27% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.34% Total : 32.07% | 1-1 @ 9.88% ( -0.08) 2-2 @ 6.74% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 3.62% ( -0.06)3-3 @ 2.04% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.39% Total : 22.67% | 1-2 @ 8.97% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 6.58% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 5.98% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 5.43% ( 0.08)2-3 @ 4.08% ( 0.05)0-3 @ 3.62% ( 0.07)1-4 @ 2.47% ( 0.07)2-4 @ 1.85% ( 0.05)0-4 @ 1.64% ( 0.05)3-4 @ 0.93% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.7% Total : 45.25% |
ISOCountry Code:
Matched Country Groups:
