SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Twente win with a probability of 41.4%. A win for Ajax had a probability of 36.21% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Twente win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.64%) and 2-0 (5.05%). The likeliest Ajax win was 1-2 (7.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.4%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that FC Twente would win this match.
| Result | ||
| FC Twente | Draw | Ajax |
41.4% ( -0.83) | 22.38% ( -0.31) | 36.21% ( 1.15) |
| Both teams to score 67.6% ( 1.48) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 67.16% ( 1.83) | 32.84% ( -1.83) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 45.46% ( 2.08) | 54.54% ( -2.07) |
| FC Twente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.35% ( 0.42) | 16.65% ( -0.41) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.49% ( 0.74) | 46.5% ( -0.73) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.11% ( 1.38) | 18.89% ( -1.38) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.63% ( 2.25) | 50.36% ( -2.25) |
| Score Analysis |
| FC Twente | Draw | Ajax |
| 2-1 @ 8.42% ( -0.21) 1-0 @ 5.64% ( -0.48)2-0 @ 5.05% ( -0.35)3-1 @ 5.03% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 4.19% ( 0.14)3-0 @ 3.02% ( -0.17)4-1 @ 2.26% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.88% ( 0.09)4-0 @ 1.35% ( -0.05)4-3 @ 1.04% ( 0.09)Other @ 3.51% Total : 41.4% | 1-1 @ 9.4% ( -0.36) 2-2 @ 7.02% ( 0.13)0-0 @ 3.15% ( -0.31)3-3 @ 2.33% ( 0.17)Other @ 0.49% Total : 22.38% | 1-2 @ 7.83% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 5.24% ( -0.28)0-2 @ 4.37% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 4.35% ( 0.21)2-3 @ 3.9% ( 0.24)0-3 @ 2.43% ( 0.08)1-4 @ 1.81% ( 0.16)2-4 @ 1.63% ( 0.16)0-4 @ 1.01% ( 0.08)3-4 @ 0.97% ( 0.11)Other @ 2.67% Total : 36.21% |
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