SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Utrecht win with a probability of 65.09%. A draw had a probability of 18.6% and a win for PEC Zwolle had a probability of 16.36%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Utrecht win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.82%) and 1-0 (7.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.26%), while for a PEC Zwolle win it was 1-2 (4.52%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Utrecht would win this match.
| Result | ||
| FC Utrecht | Draw | PEC Zwolle |
65.09% ( 1.7) | 18.55% ( -0.32) | 16.36% ( -1.38) |
| Both teams to score 60.13% ( -1.91) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.68% ( -1.08) | 33.32% ( 1.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.91% ( -1.24) | 55.09% ( 1.25) |
| FC Utrecht Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.36% ( 0.1) | 9.64% ( -0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 67.8% ( 0.24) | 32.19% ( -0.23) |
| PEC Zwolle Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.55% ( -2.19) | 33.45% ( 2.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.92% ( -2.47) | 70.08% ( 2.47) |
| Score Analysis |
| FC Utrecht | Draw | PEC Zwolle |
| 2-1 @ 9.66% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 8.82% ( 0.57)1-0 @ 7.54% ( 0.45)3-1 @ 7.53% ( 0.08)3-0 @ 6.88% ( 0.47)4-1 @ 4.41% ( 0.07)3-2 @ 4.13% ( -0.21)4-0 @ 4.02% ( 0.29)4-2 @ 2.41% ( -0.11)5-1 @ 2.06% ( 0.04)5-0 @ 1.88% ( 0.14)5-2 @ 1.13% ( -0.05)Other @ 4.62% Total : 65.09% | 1-1 @ 8.26% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.29% ( -0.29)0-0 @ 3.23% ( 0.18)3-3 @ 1.51% ( -0.17)Other @ 0.27% Total : 18.55% | 1-2 @ 4.52% ( -0.27) 0-1 @ 3.53% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 1.93% ( -0.13)2-3 @ 1.93% ( -0.23)1-3 @ 1.65% ( -0.21)Other @ 2.78% Total : 16.36% |
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