SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 62.73%. A draw had a probability of 19.3% and a win for Heerenveen had a probability of 17.97%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.53%) and 1-0 (7.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.58%), while for a Heerenveen win it was 1-2 (4.88%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ajax | Draw | Heerenveen |
62.73% ( 0.22) | 19.29% ( 0.05) | 17.97% ( -0.27) |
| Both teams to score 60.9% ( -0.75) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.09% ( -0.72) | 33.91% ( 0.72) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.24% ( -0.82) | 55.76% ( 0.82) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.62% ( -0.15) | 10.38% ( 0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 66.1% ( -0.35) | 33.9% ( 0.35) |
| Heerenveen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.96% ( -0.72) | 32.04% ( 0.72) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.49% ( -0.82) | 68.51% ( 0.83) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ajax | Draw | Heerenveen |
| 2-1 @ 9.71% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 8.53% ( 0.21)1-0 @ 7.54% ( 0.23)3-1 @ 7.33% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 6.44% ( 0.11)3-2 @ 4.17% ( -0.09)4-1 @ 4.15% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 3.65% ( 0.04)4-2 @ 2.36% ( -0.07)5-1 @ 1.88% ( -0.03)5-0 @ 1.65% ( 0.01)5-2 @ 1.07% ( -0.04)Other @ 4.23% Total : 62.73% | 1-1 @ 8.58% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 5.53% ( -0.08)0-0 @ 3.33% ( 0.12)3-3 @ 1.58% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.28% Total : 19.29% | 1-2 @ 4.88% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 3.79% ( 0.07)0-2 @ 2.15% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.1% ( -0.07)1-3 @ 1.85% ( -0.05)Other @ 3.21% Total : 17.97% |
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