Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 53.5%. A win for Almere City had a probability of 25.45% and a draw had a probability of 21.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (6.68%) and 1-3 (6.51%). The likeliest Almere City win was 2-1 (6.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.
Result | ||
Almere City | Draw | Ajax |
25.45% ( -0.38) | 21.05% ( 0.13) | 53.5% ( 0.24) |
Both teams to score 65.97% ( -0.92) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
67.7% ( -1.02) | 32.29% ( 1.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
46.09% ( -1.2) | 53.91% ( 1.19) |
Almere City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.26% ( -0.81) | 24.73% ( 0.81) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
40.71% ( -1.14) | 59.28% ( 1.14) |
Ajax Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87.65% ( -0.27) | 12.35% ( 0.27) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
61.82% ( -0.57) | 38.18% ( 0.57) |
Score Analysis |
Almere City | Draw | Ajax |
2-1 @ 6.23% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 4.27% ( 0.14) 3-2 @ 3.04% ( -0.11) 2-0 @ 2.98% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 2.9% ( -0.08) 3-0 @ 1.39% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.06% ( -0.07) 4-1 @ 1.01% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.56% Total : 25.45% | 1-1 @ 8.92% ( 0.19) 2-2 @ 6.52% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 3.05% ( 0.17) 3-3 @ 2.12% ( -0.1) Other @ 0.44% Total : 21.05% | 1-2 @ 9.33% ( 0.1) 0-2 @ 6.68% ( 0.23) 1-3 @ 6.51% ( 0) 0-1 @ 6.39% ( 0.28) 0-3 @ 4.66% ( 0.11) 2-3 @ 4.55% ( -0.11) 1-4 @ 3.4% ( -0.04) 0-4 @ 2.44% ( 0.03) 2-4 @ 2.38% ( -0.08) 1-5 @ 1.42% ( -0.03) 3-4 @ 1.11% ( -0.07) 0-5 @ 1.02% ( 0) 2-5 @ 0.99% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.63% Total : 53.5% |
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