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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 75.37%. A draw had a probability of 14.9% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 9.71%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.37%) and 2-1 (9.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.9%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 1-2 (2.92%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
| Result | ||
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
75.37% ( 0.78) | 14.92% ( -0.11) | 9.71% ( -0.67) |
| Both teams to score 52.98% ( -2.48) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 67.42% ( -1.72) | 32.57% ( 1.72) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 45.77% ( -2.02) | 54.23% ( 2.02) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.77% ( -0.23) | 7.23% ( 0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 73.78% ( -0.62) | 26.22% ( 0.63) |
| SBV Excelsior Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.11% ( -2.52) | 42.89% ( 2.52) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.8% ( -2.21) | 79.19% ( 2.21) |
| Score Analysis |
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
| 2-0 @ 10.69% ( 0.7) 3-0 @ 9.37% ( 0.51)2-1 @ 9.06% ( -0)1-0 @ 8.14% ( 0.64)3-1 @ 7.93% ( -0.1)4-0 @ 6.15% ( 0.26)4-1 @ 5.21% ( -0.14)3-2 @ 3.36% ( -0.29)5-0 @ 3.23% ( 0.1)5-1 @ 2.74% ( -0.11)4-2 @ 2.21% ( -0.22)6-0 @ 1.42% ( 0.03)6-1 @ 1.2% ( -0.06)5-2 @ 1.16% ( -0.13)Other @ 3.51% Total : 75.36% | 1-1 @ 6.9% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 3.83% ( -0.28)0-0 @ 3.1% ( 0.28)3-3 @ 0.95% ( -0.16)Other @ 0.15% Total : 14.92% | 1-2 @ 2.92% ( -0.17) 0-1 @ 2.63% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 1.11% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 1.08% ( -0.16)Other @ 1.97% Total : 9.71% |
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