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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 56.21%. A win for AZ Alkmaar had a probability of 22.52% and a draw had a probability of 21.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.95%) and 1-0 (7.79%). The likeliest AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 (5.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.54%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| PSV Eindhoven | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
56.21% ( 0.13) | 21.27% ( -0.08) | 22.52% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 61.44% ( 0.22) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.36% ( 0.31) | 36.65% ( -0.31) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.2% ( 0.34) | 58.8% ( -0.34) |
| PSV Eindhoven Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87% ( 0.14) | 13% ( -0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.48% ( 0.29) | 39.52% ( -0.28) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.62% ( 0.13) | 29.38% ( -0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.64% ( 0.16) | 65.37% ( -0.16) |
| Score Analysis |
| PSV Eindhoven | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 2-1 @ 9.74% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 7.95% ( -0.04)1-0 @ 7.79% ( -0.08)3-1 @ 6.62% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 5.41% ( 0)3-2 @ 4.06% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 3.38% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 2.76% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 2.07% ( 0.03)5-1 @ 1.38% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 1.13% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.95% Total : 56.21% | 1-1 @ 9.54% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 5.96% ( 0.02)0-0 @ 3.82% ( -0.06)3-3 @ 1.66% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.29% Total : 21.27% | 1-2 @ 5.85% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 4.68% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 2.87% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.44% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 2.39% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.17% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.14% Total : 22.52% |
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