SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 66.2%. A draw had a probability of 17.5% and a win for FC Utrecht had a probability of 16.31%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.77%) and 2-0 (7.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.28%), while for a FC Utrecht win it was 1-2 (4.38%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.
| Result | ||
| PSV Eindhoven | Draw | FC Utrecht |
66.2% ( 3.24) | 17.49% ( -0.45) | 16.31% ( -2.79) |
| Both teams to score 64.36% ( -4.37) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 71.99% ( -2.95) | 28.01% ( 2.94) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 51.24% ( -3.75) | 48.75% ( 3.75) |
| PSV Eindhoven Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.03% ( -0.14) | 7.97% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 71.87% ( -0.34) | 28.12% ( 0.33) |
| FC Utrecht Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.93% ( -4.64) | 30.06% ( 4.64) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.8% ( -5.96) | 66.19% ( 5.95) |
| Score Analysis |
| PSV Eindhoven | Draw | FC Utrecht |
| 2-1 @ 9.21% ( 0.37) 3-1 @ 7.77% ( 0.26)2-0 @ 7.66% ( 1.21)3-0 @ 6.46% ( 0.98)1-0 @ 6.06% ( 0.99)4-1 @ 4.91% ( 0.13)3-2 @ 4.67% ( -0.47)4-0 @ 4.09% ( 0.6)4-2 @ 2.95% ( -0.32)5-1 @ 2.49% ( 0.05)5-0 @ 2.07% ( 0.29)5-2 @ 1.49% ( -0.17)4-3 @ 1.18% ( -0.31)6-1 @ 1.05% ( 0.02)Other @ 4.13% Total : 66.2% | 1-1 @ 7.28% ( 0.34) 2-2 @ 5.54% ( -0.52)0-0 @ 2.4% ( 0.4)3-3 @ 1.87% ( -0.48)Other @ 0.4% Total : 17.49% | 1-2 @ 4.38% ( -0.38) 0-1 @ 2.88% ( 0.15)2-3 @ 2.22% ( -0.55)1-3 @ 1.75% ( -0.42)0-2 @ 1.73% ( -0.14)Other @ 3.36% Total : 16.31% |
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