SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 59.14%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Heerenveen had a probability of 19.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.8%) and 0-1 (8.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.55%), while for a Heerenveen win it was 2-1 (5.36%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Heerenveen | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
19.99% ( 1.54) | 20.86% ( 0.88) | 59.14% ( -2.41) |
| Both teams to score 58.92% ( -0.36) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.82% ( -1.74) | 38.18% ( 1.75) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.54% ( -1.88) | 60.46% ( 1.88) |
| Heerenveen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.45% ( 0.51) | 32.55% ( -0.51) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.92% ( 0.57) | 69.08% ( -0.57) |
| PSV Eindhoven Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.36% ( -1.2) | 12.64% ( 1.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 61.22% ( -2.55) | 38.78% ( 2.56) |
| Score Analysis |
| Heerenveen | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
| 2-1 @ 5.36% ( 0.34) 1-0 @ 4.62% ( 0.43)2-0 @ 2.59% ( 0.28)3-2 @ 2.07% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 2.01% ( 0.15)3-0 @ 0.97% ( 0.12)Other @ 2.38% Total : 19.99% | 1-1 @ 9.55% ( 0.48) 2-2 @ 5.54% ( 0.1)0-0 @ 4.11% ( 0.34)3-3 @ 1.43% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.23% Total : 20.86% | 1-2 @ 9.88% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 8.8% ( -0.09)0-1 @ 8.51% ( 0.31)1-3 @ 6.81% ( -0.3)0-3 @ 6.07% ( -0.36)2-3 @ 3.82% ( -0.11)1-4 @ 3.52% ( -0.33)0-4 @ 3.14% ( -0.35)2-4 @ 1.98% ( -0.16)1-5 @ 1.46% ( -0.22)0-5 @ 1.3% ( -0.21)Other @ 3.86% Total : 59.14% |
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