SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sparta Rotterdam win with a probability of 59.89%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 18.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sparta Rotterdam win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.54%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.42%), while for a Fortuna Sittard win it was 0-1 (5.48%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sparta Rotterdam would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sparta Rotterdam | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
59.89% ( -0.32) | 21.95% ( 0.11) | 18.15% ( 0.21) |
| Both teams to score 51.86% ( 0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.07% ( -0.13) | 45.93% ( 0.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.76% ( -0.12) | 68.24% ( 0.12) |
| Sparta Rotterdam Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.07% ( -0.14) | 14.92% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.68% ( -0.27) | 43.31% ( 0.27) |
| Fortuna Sittard Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.96% ( 0.17) | 39.04% ( -0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.24% ( 0.16) | 75.76% ( -0.16) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sparta Rotterdam | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
| 1-0 @ 11.08% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 10.54% ( -0.05)2-1 @ 9.92% ( -0)3-0 @ 6.68% ( -0.07)3-1 @ 6.29% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 3.18% ( -0.05)4-1 @ 2.99% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 2.96% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.41% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 1.21% ( -0.02)5-1 @ 1.14% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.51% Total : 59.89% | 1-1 @ 10.42% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 5.83% ( 0.03)2-2 @ 4.66% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 0.93% ( 0)Other @ 0.11% Total : 21.95% | 0-1 @ 5.48% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 4.9% ( 0.05)0-2 @ 2.58% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 1.54% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.46% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.19% Total : 18.15% |
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