SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 33 | 22 | 61 |
| 6 | Vitesse | 33 | -9 | 50 |
| 7 | FC Utrecht | 33 | 8 | 47 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | Vitesse | 33 | -9 | 50 |
| 7 | FC Utrecht | 33 | 8 | 47 |
| 8 | NEC | 33 | -13 | 38 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitesse win with a probability of 44.22%. A win for FC Utrecht had a probability of 31.38% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitesse win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.66%) and 2-0 (6.95%). The likeliest FC Utrecht win was 1-2 (7.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.38%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vitesse would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Vitesse | Draw | FC Utrecht |
44.22% ( -0.88) | 24.4% ( 0.05) | 31.38% ( 0.83) |
| Both teams to score 58.46% ( 0.24) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.86% ( 0.13) | 44.14% ( -0.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.48% ( 0.13) | 66.52% ( -0.12) |
| Vitesse Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.9% ( -0.33) | 20.1% ( 0.33) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.66% ( -0.53) | 52.34% ( 0.53) |
| FC Utrecht Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.16% ( 0.6) | 26.84% ( -0.6) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.85% ( 0.78) | 62.14% ( -0.78) |
| Score Analysis |
| Vitesse | Draw | FC Utrecht |
| 2-1 @ 9.13% ( -0.08) 1-0 @ 8.66% ( -0.14)2-0 @ 6.95% ( -0.18)3-1 @ 4.89% ( -0.1)3-0 @ 3.71% ( -0.14)3-2 @ 3.21% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.96% ( -0.06)4-0 @ 1.49% ( -0.07)4-2 @ 1.29% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.94% Total : 44.22% | 1-1 @ 11.38% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.01% ( 0.05)0-0 @ 5.39% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 1.41% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.39% | 1-2 @ 7.49% ( 0.13) 0-1 @ 7.1% ( 0.08)0-2 @ 4.67% ( 0.13)1-3 @ 3.28% ( 0.11)2-3 @ 2.63% ( 0.06)0-3 @ 2.05% ( 0.09)1-4 @ 1.08% ( 0.05)Other @ 3.1% Total : 31.38% |
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