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Conference League | Group Stage
Oct 5, 2023 at 8pm UK
Villa Park

Aston Villa
1 - 0
Zrinjski Mostar

McGinn (90+4')
McGinn (24'), Cash (64')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Hrvanovic (22'), Bilbija (64')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Aston Villa 6-1 Brighton
Saturday, September 30 at 12.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Zrinjski Mostar 4-3 AZ
Thursday, September 21 at 5.45pm in Europa Conference League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 43.33%. A win for Zrinjski Mostar had a probability of 31.26% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.01%) and 2-0 (7.31%). The likeliest Zrinjski Mostar win was 0-1 (8.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Aston Villa in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Aston Villa.

Result
Aston VillaDrawZrinjski Mostar
43.33% (-0.0030000000000001 -0) 25.4% (-0.0020000000000024 -0) 31.26% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Both teams to score 54.96%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.33% (0.0020000000000024 0)48.67% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.22% (0.0030000000000001 0)70.78% (-0.0049999999999955 -0)
Aston Villa Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.6% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)22.4% (0.0010000000000012 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.09% (-0.00099999999999767 -0)55.91%
Zrinjski Mostar Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.83% (0.0030000000000001 0)29.16% (-0.0040000000000013 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.9% (0.0039999999999978 0)65.1% (-0.0040000000000049 -0)
Score Analysis
    Aston Villa 43.33%
    Zrinjski Mostar 31.26%
    Draw 25.4%
Aston VillaDrawZrinjski Mostar
1-0 @ 9.77% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
2-1 @ 9.01%
2-0 @ 7.31% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-1 @ 4.49%
3-0 @ 3.65% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
3-2 @ 2.77%
4-1 @ 1.68%
4-0 @ 1.36%
4-2 @ 1.04%
Other @ 2.25%
Total : 43.33%
1-1 @ 12.04%
0-0 @ 6.53% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
2-2 @ 5.55% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-3 @ 1.14%
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 25.4%
0-1 @ 8.05%
1-2 @ 7.42%
0-2 @ 4.96% (0.0010000000000003 0)
1-3 @ 3.05% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-3 @ 2.28%
0-3 @ 2.04%
1-4 @ 0.94%
Other @ 2.53%
Total : 31.26%

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Form Guide
Last Game: Aston Villa 6-1 Brighton
Saturday, September 30 at 12.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Aston Villa 1-2 Everton
Wednesday, September 27 at 7.45pm in EFL Cup
Last Game: Chelsea 0-1 Aston Villa
Sunday, September 24 at 2pm in Premier League
Last Game: Legia 3-2 Aston Villa
Thursday, September 21 at 5.45pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: Aston Villa 3-1 Crystal Palace
Saturday, September 16 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Liverpool 3-0 Aston Villa
Sunday, September 3 at 2pm in Premier League
Last Game: Zrinjski Mostar 4-3 AZ
Thursday, September 21 at 5.45pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: Zrinjski Mostar 1-1 LASK
Thursday, August 31 at 8pm in Europa League
Last Game: LASK 2-1 Zrinjski Mostar
Thursday, August 24 at 8pm in Europa League
Last Game: Breidablik 1-0 Zrinjski Mostar
Thursday, August 17 at 6.30pm in Europa League
Last Game: Zrinjski Mostar 6-2 Breidablik
Thursday, August 10 at 8pm in Europa League
Last Game: Slovan Bratislava 2-2 Zrinjski Mostar
Tuesday, August 1 at 7.30pm in Champions League


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