SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Legia Warsaw win with a probability of 51.45%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 26.33% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Legia Warsaw win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.52%) and 2-0 (7.21%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 1-2 (6.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.93%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Legia Warsaw would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Legia Warsaw | Draw | Aston Villa |
51.45% ( -0.1) | 22.21% ( 0) | 26.33% ( 0.1) |
| Both teams to score 62.55% ( 0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.85% ( 0.07) | 37.15% ( -0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.65% ( 0.07) | 59.35% ( -0.07) |
| Legia Warsaw Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.33% ( -0.01) | 14.66% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.18% ( -0.02) | 42.82% ( 0.02) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.3% ( 0.11) | 26.7% ( -0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.05% ( 0.14) | 61.95% ( -0.14) |
| Score Analysis |
| Legia Warsaw | Draw | Aston Villa |
| 2-1 @ 9.53% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 7.52% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 7.21% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 6.1% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 4.62% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 4.03% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 2.93% ( -0)4-0 @ 2.22% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.93% ( 0)5-1 @ 1.12% ( -0)Other @ 4.26% Total : 51.45% | 1-1 @ 9.93% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.29% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 3.92% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.77% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.31% Total : 22.21% | 1-2 @ 6.55% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 5.17% ( -0)0-2 @ 3.41% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2.89% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.77% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.5% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 0.95% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 0.91% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.17% Total : 26.33% |
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