SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Liverpool win with a probability of 52.33%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 25.48% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Liverpool win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.76%) and 2-0 (7.47%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 1-2 (6.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.98%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Liverpool would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Liverpool | Draw | Aston Villa |
52.33% ( 0.15) | 22.18% ( -0.02) | 25.48% ( -0.14) |
| Both teams to score 61.8% ( -0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.23% ( -0.05) | 37.77% ( 0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.98% ( -0.05) | 60.02% ( 0.05) |
| Liverpool Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.41% ( 0.03) | 14.59% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.32% ( 0.06) | 42.67% ( -0.07) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.35% ( -0.13) | 27.65% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.81% ( -0.17) | 63.19% ( 0.16) |
| Score Analysis |
| Liverpool | Draw | Aston Villa |
| 2-1 @ 9.61% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.76% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 7.47% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 6.16% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 4.79% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 3.96% ( -0)4-1 @ 2.97% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 2.31% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.91% 5-1 @ 1.14% ( 0.01)Other @ 4.25% Total : 52.33% | 1-1 @ 9.98% ( -0) 2-2 @ 6.18% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 4.03% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.7% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.29% Total : 22.18% | 1-2 @ 6.42% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 5.19% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 3.33% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 2.75% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.65% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 1.43% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.72% Total : 25.48% |
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