SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 43.94%. A win for Crystal Palace had a probability of 30.28% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.02%) and 2-0 (7.67%). The likeliest Crystal Palace win was 0-1 (8.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.25%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Aston Villa | Draw | Crystal Palace |
43.94% ( 0.08) | 25.79% ( -0.01) | 30.28% ( -0.07) |
| Both teams to score 53.26% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.33% ( 0.03) | 50.68% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.42% ( 0.02) | 72.58% ( -0.02) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.03% ( 0.05) | 22.97% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.24% ( 0.07) | 56.76% ( -0.07) |
| Crystal Palace Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.15% ( -0.03) | 30.85% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.87% ( -0.04) | 67.13% ( 0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Aston Villa | Draw | Crystal Palace |
| 1-0 @ 10.42% 2-1 @ 9.02% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 7.67% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 4.42% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 3.76% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.6% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.63% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.38% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 0.96% ( 0)Other @ 2.09% Total : 43.93% | 1-1 @ 12.25% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 7.09% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 5.3% 3-3 @ 1.02% ( 0)Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.78% | 0-1 @ 8.34% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 7.21% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 4.9% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.83% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.08% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.92% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.01% Total : 30.28% |
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