SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 55.03%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Aston Villa had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.51%) and 2-0 (8.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.55%), while for an Aston Villa win it was 1-2 (5.86%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Chelsea | Draw | Aston Villa |
55.03% ( -0.3) | 22.56% ( -0.05) | 22.4% ( 0.35) |
| Both teams to score 56.68% ( 0.65) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.16% ( 0.64) | 42.84% ( -0.65) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.76% ( 0.64) | 65.24% ( -0.64) |
| Chelsea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.53% ( 0.13) | 15.47% ( -0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.66% ( 0.23) | 44.33% ( -0.23) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.05% ( 0.68) | 32.94% ( -0.67) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.47% ( 0.75) | 69.52% ( -0.74) |
| Score Analysis |
| Chelsea | Draw | Aston Villa |
| 2-1 @ 9.86% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 9.51% ( -0.23)2-0 @ 8.88% ( -0.18)3-1 @ 6.13% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 5.52% ( -0.09)3-2 @ 3.4% ( 0.07)4-1 @ 2.86% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 2.58% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 1.59% ( 0.04)5-1 @ 1.07% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 0.96% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.68% Total : 55.03% | 1-1 @ 10.55% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 5.47% ( 0.09)0-0 @ 5.1% ( -0.15)3-3 @ 1.26% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.18% Total : 22.55% | 1-2 @ 5.86% ( 0.08) 0-1 @ 5.66% ( -0.06)0-2 @ 3.14% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 2.17% ( 0.07)2-3 @ 2.03% ( 0.07)0-3 @ 1.16% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.38% Total : 22.4% |
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