SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Celje win with a probability of 43.67%. A win for Lugano had a probability of 33.85% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Celje win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.06%) and 2-0 (5.51%). The likeliest Lugano win was 1-2 (7.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.59%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Celje would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Celje | Draw | Lugano |
43.67% ( 0.2) | 22.48% ( -0.02) | 33.85% ( -0.19) |
| Both teams to score 66.57% ( -0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.06% ( 0.02) | 33.94% ( -0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.2% ( 0.03) | 55.8% ( -0.03) |
| Celje Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.78% ( 0.08) | 16.22% ( -0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 54.29% ( 0.16) | 45.71% ( -0.16) |
| Lugano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.46% ( -0.09) | 20.54% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 46.94% ( -0.13) | 53.06% ( 0.13) |
| Score Analysis |
| Celje | Draw | Lugano |
| 2-1 @ 8.72% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 6.06% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 5.51% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 5.29% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 4.19% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 3.34% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 2.41% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.9% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.52% ( 0.02)4-3 @ 1% ( 0)Other @ 3.72% Total : 43.67% | 1-1 @ 9.59% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.9% ( -0)0-0 @ 3.33% ( -0)3-3 @ 2.21% ( -0)Other @ 0.45% Total : 22.48% | 1-2 @ 7.59% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 5.27% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 4.17% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 4% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 3.64% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 2.2% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.58% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.44% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.95% Total : 33.85% |
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