Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hamrun Spartans win with a probability of 42.6%. A win for Dinamo Tbilisi had a probability of 31.36% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hamrun Spartans win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.86%) and 2-0 (7.44%). The likeliest Dinamo Tbilisi win was 0-1 (8.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hamrun Spartans would win this match.
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