Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burnley win with a probability of 46.66%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 29.14% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Burnley win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9%) and 2-0 (7.44%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 1-2 (7.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.31%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-3 win for Aston Villa in this match.

Result
Burnley	Draw	Aston Villa
46.66% ( 0.92)	24.19% ( 0.32)	29.14% ( -1.23)

Both teams to score 57.87% (

-1.87)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.65% (

-2.12)

44.35% (

2.12)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.28% (

-2.09)

66.72% (

2.09)

Burnley Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.85% (

-0.47)

19.14% (

0.47)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.21% (

-0.78)

50.79% (

0.77)

Aston Villa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.57% (

-1.89)

28.43% (

1.89)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.81% (

-2.44)

64.19% (

2.44)

Score Analysis

Burnley 46.67%

Aston Villa 29.14%

Draw 24.19%

Burnley	Draw	Aston Villa
2-1 @ 9.36% ( 0.1) 1-0 @ 9% ( 0.68) 2-0 @ 7.44% ( 0.46) 3-1 @ 5.16% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 4.1% ( 0.2) 3-2 @ 3.24% ( -0.19) 4-1 @ 2.13% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 1.69% ( 0.06) 4-2 @ 1.34% ( -0.1) Other @ 3.21% Total : 46.67%	1-1 @ 11.31% ( 0.28) 2-2 @ 5.88% ( -0.26) 0-0 @ 5.44% ( 0.48) 3-3 @ 1.36% ( -0.16) Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.19%	1-2 @ 7.12% ( -0.2) 0-1 @ 6.85% ( 0.27) 0-2 @ 4.3% ( -0.06) 1-3 @ 2.98% ( -0.25) 2-3 @ 2.47% ( -0.25) 0-3 @ 1.8% ( -0.12) 1-4 @ 0.94% ( -0.14) Other @ 2.68% Total : 29.14%