SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 39.6%. A win for Everton had a probability of 34.03% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.51%) and 2-0 (6.87%). The likeliest Everton win was 0-1 (9.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.54%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Aston Villa | Draw | Everton |
39.6% ( -2.39) | 26.37% ( 0.24) | 34.03% ( 2.15) |
| Both teams to score 52.71% ( -0.15) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.01% ( -0.48) | 51.99% ( 0.48) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.27% ( -0.41) | 73.73% ( 0.42) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.24% ( -1.46) | 25.76% ( 1.46) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.3% ( -2.02) | 60.69% ( 2.03) |
| Everton Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.99% ( 1.17) | 29.01% ( -1.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.09% ( 1.42) | 64.91% ( -1.42) |
| Score Analysis |
| Aston Villa | Draw | Everton |
| 1-0 @ 10.13% ( -0.24) 2-1 @ 8.51% ( -0.29)2-0 @ 6.87% ( -0.46)3-1 @ 3.85% ( -0.3)3-0 @ 3.11% ( -0.35)3-2 @ 2.38% ( -0.11)4-1 @ 1.3% ( -0.16)4-0 @ 1.05% ( -0.17)Other @ 2.39% Total : 39.6% | 1-1 @ 12.54% ( 0.12) 0-0 @ 7.47% ( 0.14)2-2 @ 5.27% ( -0)3-3 @ 0.98% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.37% | 0-1 @ 9.25% ( 0.46) 1-2 @ 7.76% ( 0.32)0-2 @ 5.72% ( 0.46)1-3 @ 3.2% ( 0.23)0-3 @ 2.36% ( 0.26)2-3 @ 2.17% ( 0.07)1-4 @ 0.99% ( 0.1)Other @ 2.57% Total : 34.03% |
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