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Europa League | Group Stage
Nov 3, 2022 at 8pm UK
Stadio Olimpico
L

Roma
3 - 1
Ludogorets

Pellegrini (56' pen., 65' pen.), Zaniolo (85')
Volpato (49'), Zaniolo (87'), Vina (88')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Rick (42')
Cicinho (15'), Thiago (62'), Nedyalkov (64'), Piotrowski (64'), Rick (79')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Hellas Verona 1-3 Roma
Monday, October 31 at 5.30pm in Serie A
Last Game: Ludogorets 0-1 Betis
Thursday, October 27 at 5.45pm in Europa League

We said: Roma 2-1 Ludogorets Razgrad

While Ludogorets pose a significant threat back in Bulgaria - as evidenced in Roma's defeat there earlier this term - they do not tend to travel well; making them susceptible to a last-day defeat. Their hosts have enough guile in their Conference League-winning squad - and experience on the bench - to get the job done, but it could be a close-run thing. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 65.25%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Ludogorets Razgrad had a probability of 12.59%.

The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.19%) and 2-1 (8.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.05%), while for a Ludogorets Razgrad win it was 0-1 (5.62%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.

Result
RomaDrawLudogorets Razgrad
65.25% (-0.28800000000001 -0.29) 22.15% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01) 12.59% (0.29 0.29)
Both teams to score 39.07% (0.747 0.75)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.61% (0.567 0.57)56.39% (-0.57 -0.57)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.59% (0.455 0.45)77.41% (-0.459 -0.46)
Roma Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.28% (0.097999999999999 0.1)16.71% (-0.102 -0.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
53.39% (0.181 0.18)46.61% (-0.185 -0.19)
Ludogorets Razgrad Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
46.92% (0.841 0.84)53.08% (-0.844 -0.84)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
13.29% (0.524 0.52)86.7% (-0.529 -0.53)
Score Analysis
    Roma 65.24%
    Ludogorets Razgrad 12.59%
    Draw 22.15%
RomaDrawLudogorets Razgrad
1-0 @ 15.87% (-0.29 -0.29)
2-0 @ 14.19% (-0.22 -0.22)
2-1 @ 8.99% (0.090999999999999 0.09)
3-0 @ 8.47% (-0.099 -0.1)
3-1 @ 5.36% (0.073 0.07)
4-0 @ 3.79% (-0.032 -0.03)
4-1 @ 2.4% (0.04 0.04)
3-2 @ 1.7% (0.065 0.07)
5-0 @ 1.36% (-0.006 -0.01)
Other @ 3.13%
Total : 65.24%
1-1 @ 10.05% (0.066000000000001 0.07)
0-0 @ 8.87% (-0.196 -0.2)
2-2 @ 2.85% (0.099 0.1)
Other @ 0.38%
Total : 22.15%
0-1 @ 5.62% (0.019 0.02)
1-2 @ 3.18% (0.1 0.1)
0-2 @ 1.78% (0.05 0.05)
Other @ 2.01%
Total : 12.59%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Hellas Verona 1-3 Roma
Monday, October 31 at 5.30pm in Serie A
Last Game: HJK Helsinki 1-2 Roma
Thursday, October 27 at 8pm in Europa League
Last Game: Roma 0-1 Napoli
Sunday, October 23 at 7.45pm in Serie A
Last Game: Sampdoria 0-1 Roma
Monday, October 17 at 5.30pm in Serie A
Last Game: Betis 1-1 Roma
Thursday, October 13 at 5.45pm in Europa League
Last Game: Roma 2-1 Lecce
Sunday, October 9 at 7.45pm in Serie A
Last Game: Ludogorets 0-1 Betis
Thursday, October 27 at 5.45pm in Europa League
Last Game: Ludogorets 2-0 HJK Helsinki
Thursday, October 13 at 8pm in Europa League
Last Game: HJK Helsinki 1-1 Ludogorets
Thursday, October 6 at 5.45pm in Europa League
Last Game: Betis 3-2 Ludogorets
Thursday, September 15 at 8pm in Europa League
Last Game: Ludogorets 2-1 Roma
Thursday, September 8 at 5.45pm in Europa League
Last Game: Zalgiris 3-3 Ludogorets
Thursday, August 25 at 5pm in Europa League


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
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