SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ludogorets Razgrad win with a probability of 38.07%. A win for HJK Helsinki had a probability of 37.89% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ludogorets Razgrad win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.2%) and 2-0 (5.51%). The likeliest HJK Helsinki win was 1-2 (8.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.99%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ludogorets Razgrad would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ludogorets Razgrad | Draw | HJK Helsinki |
38.07% ( -0.08) | 24.05% ( 0.02) | 37.89% ( 0.08) |
| Both teams to score 61.31% ( -0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.92% ( -0.08) | 41.08% ( 0.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.53% ( -0.08) | 63.47% ( 0.09) |
| Ludogorets Razgrad Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.35% ( -0.07) | 21.65% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.22% ( -0.12) | 54.78% ( 0.13) |
| HJK Helsinki Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.26% ( 0.01) | 21.75% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.08% ( 0) | 54.92% ( 0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ludogorets Razgrad | Draw | HJK Helsinki |
| 2-1 @ 8.41% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 7.2% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 5.51% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 4.29% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 3.27% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 2.81% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.64% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.25% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.08% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.61% Total : 38.07% | 1-1 @ 10.99% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 6.42% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 4.71% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.66% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.27% Total : 24.04% | 1-2 @ 8.39% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 7.18% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 5.48% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 4.27% ( 0)2-3 @ 3.26% ( -0)0-3 @ 2.79% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.63% ( 0)2-4 @ 1.25% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.06% ( 0)Other @ 2.58% Total : 37.89% |
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