SM
| Current League C1 Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Turkey | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Faroe Islands | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Luxembourg | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Lithuania | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luxembourg win with a probability of 48.27%. A win for Lithuania had a probability of 29.64% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luxembourg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.44%) and 2-0 (6.2%). The likeliest Lithuania win was 1-2 (6.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Luxembourg would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Luxembourg | Draw | Lithuania |
48.27% ( 0.69) | 22.09% ( -0.25) | 29.64% ( -0.43) |
| Both teams to score 65.83% ( 0.67) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.97% ( 1) | 34.02% ( -1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.11% ( 1.12) | 55.89% ( -1.12) |
| Luxembourg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.4% ( 0.61) | 14.6% ( -0.61) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.31% ( 1.16) | 42.68% ( -1.16) |
| Lithuania Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.08% ( 0.24) | 22.92% ( -0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.31% ( 0.35) | 56.69% ( -0.35) |
| Score Analysis |
| Luxembourg | Draw | Lithuania |
| 2-1 @ 9.13% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 6.44% ( -0.19)2-0 @ 6.2% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 5.85% ( 0.12)3-2 @ 4.31% ( 0.12)3-0 @ 3.97% ( 0.05)4-1 @ 2.82% ( 0.11)4-2 @ 2.07% ( 0.1)4-0 @ 1.91% ( 0.07)5-1 @ 1.08% ( 0.07)4-3 @ 1.02% ( 0.06)Other @ 3.47% Total : 48.27% | 1-1 @ 9.49% ( -0.22) 2-2 @ 6.72% ( 0.04)0-0 @ 3.35% ( -0.18)3-3 @ 2.12% ( 0.07)Other @ 0.42% Total : 22.09% | 1-2 @ 6.99% ( -0.11) 0-1 @ 4.93% ( -0.22)0-2 @ 3.63% ( -0.14)1-3 @ 3.43% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 3.3% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 1.78% ( -0.05)1-4 @ 1.26% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.22% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.1% Total : 29.64% |
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