SM
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | England | 4 | 14 | 12 |
| 2 | Ukraine | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Italy | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | North Macedonia | 3 | -7 | 3 |
| 5 | Malta | 4 | -8 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a England win with a probability of 40.9%. A win for Ukraine had a probability of 30.92% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a England win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.23%) and 0-2 (7.85%). The likeliest Ukraine win was 1-0 (10.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Ukraine | Draw | England |
30.92% ( 1.01) | 28.18% ( 0.06) | 40.9% ( -1.07) |
| Both teams to score 46.38% ( 0.23) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.4% ( 0.09) | 59.6% ( -0.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.07% ( 0.07) | 79.93% ( -0.07) |
| Ukraine Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.97% ( 0.81) | 35.03% ( -0.81) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.22% ( 0.84) | 71.78% ( -0.84) |
| England Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.38% ( -0.55) | 28.62% ( 0.55) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.58% ( -0.69) | 64.42% ( 0.69) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ukraine | Draw | England |
| 1-0 @ 10.51% ( 0.19) 2-1 @ 6.9% ( 0.17)2-0 @ 5.52% ( 0.22)3-1 @ 2.41% ( 0.11)3-0 @ 1.93% ( 0.12)3-2 @ 1.51% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.14% Total : 30.92% | 1-1 @ 13.15% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 10.02% ( -0.04)2-2 @ 4.32% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.68% Total : 28.17% | 0-1 @ 12.54% ( -0.24) 1-2 @ 8.23% ( -0.1)0-2 @ 7.85% ( -0.27)1-3 @ 3.43% ( -0.1)0-3 @ 3.27% ( -0.17)2-3 @ 1.8% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.07% ( -0.05)0-4 @ 1.02% ( -0.07)Other @ 1.67% Total : 40.89% |
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