SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | France | 5 | 11 | 15 |
| 2 | Greece | 5 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Netherlands | 4 | 3 | 9 |
| 4 | Republic of Ireland | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 5 | Gibraltar | 5 | -17 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wales win with a probability of 93.32%. A draw had a probability of 5.7% and a win for Gibraltar had a probability of 0.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wales win was 3-0 with a probability of 18.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (16.92%) and 4-0 (14.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (3.25%), while for a Gibraltar win it was 0-1 (0.65%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 14.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Wales would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Wales | Draw | Gibraltar |
93.32% ( -1.09) | 5.71% ( 0.97) | 0.97% ( 0.12) |
| Both teams to score 17.39% ( -1.52) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.51% ( -4.86) | 33.49% ( 4.86) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.72% ( -5.76) | 55.28% ( 5.76) |
| Wales Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 96.03% ( -0.89) | 3.97% ( 0.89) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 83.21% ( -2.97) | 16.79% ( 2.97) |
| Gibraltar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 18.1% ( -1.4) | 81.89% ( 1.4) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 1.75% ( -0.29) | 98.25% ( 0.29) |
| Score Analysis |
| Wales | Draw | Gibraltar |
| 3-0 @ 18.2% ( 0.78) 2-0 @ 16.92% ( 1.9)4-0 @ 14.67% ( -0.48)1-0 @ 10.49% ( 1.85)5-0 @ 9.47% ( -1.06)6-0 @ 5.09% ( -1.02)3-1 @ 3.64% ( -0.15)2-1 @ 3.38% ( 0.12)4-1 @ 2.93% ( -0.36)7-0 @ 2.35% ( -0.69)5-1 @ 1.89% ( -0.4)6-1 @ 1.02% ( -0.31)8-0 @ 0.95% ( -0.37)Other @ 2.31% Total : 93.3% | 0-0 @ 3.25% ( 0.77) 1-1 @ 2.1% ( 0.22)Other @ 0.36% Total : 5.71% | Other @ 0.97% Total : 0.97% |
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