We said: Coventry City 1-2 Derby County
Despite their attentions being elsewhere, both teams will want to make progress in this competition. With no replays during the third round, there will be a desire to get things done in 90 minutes, but we are backing the visitors to prevail after extra time.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Coventry City win with a probability of 47.2%. A draw had a probability of 26.4% and a win for Derby County had a probability of 26.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a Coventry City win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.08%) and 2-0 (8.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.5%), while for a Derby County win it was 0-1 (8.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Coventry City in this match.
