Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Reading win with a probability of 39.05%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 32.58% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Reading win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.01%) and 2-0 (7.42%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (10.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.23%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
