We are not expecting this to be a particularly open and entertaining match, with perhaps just the one goal deciding the contest. Crawley are in strong form at the moment, but Accrington will arguably be able to send the better side onto the field, and we fancy the visitors to win this one.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crawley Town win with a probability of 38.63%. A win for Accrington Stanley had a probability of 36.33% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crawley Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.42%) and 2-0 (6.09%). The likeliest Accrington Stanley win was 1-2 (8.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.75%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Accrington Stanley would win this match.
