SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crawley Town win with a probability of 53.59%. A win for Aston Villa Under-21s had a probability of 24.95% and a draw had a probability of 21.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crawley Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.17%) and 1-0 (7.08%). The likeliest Aston Villa Under-21s win was 1-2 (6.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.4%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Crawley Town would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Crawley Town | Draw | Aston Villa Under-21s |
53.59% ( 0.02) | 21.47% ( -0) | 24.95% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 63.82% ( 0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.13% ( 0.01) | 34.87% ( -0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43.16% ( 0.01) | 56.85% ( -0) |
| Crawley Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.81% ( 0.01) | 13.2% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.08% ( 0.01) | 39.92% ( -0.01) |
| Aston Villa Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.52% ( -0) | 26.49% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.33% ( -0.01) | 61.67% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Crawley Town | Draw | Aston Villa Under-21s |
| 2-1 @ 9.52% ( 0) 2-0 @ 7.17% ( 0)1-0 @ 7.08% 3-1 @ 6.43% ( 0)3-0 @ 4.84% ( 0)3-2 @ 4.27% ( 0)4-1 @ 3.26% ( 0)4-0 @ 2.45% ( 0)4-2 @ 2.16% 5-1 @ 1.32% ( 0)5-0 @ 0.99% ( 0)4-3 @ 0.96% Other @ 3.14% Total : 53.59% | 1-1 @ 9.4% ( -0) 2-2 @ 6.33% ( -0)0-0 @ 3.5% 3-3 @ 1.89% ( -0)Other @ 0.36% Total : 21.47% | 1-2 @ 6.25% ( -0) 0-1 @ 4.64% ( -0)0-2 @ 3.08% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.8% 1-3 @ 2.77% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.37% ( -0)2-4 @ 0.93% 1-4 @ 0.92% Other @ 2.19% Total : 24.95% |
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