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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 61.7%. A draw had a probability of 21.8% and a win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 16.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.44%) and 1-2 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.38%), while for a Cheltenham Town win it was 1-0 (5.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Cheltenham Town | Draw | Derby County |
16.47% ( 0.06) | 21.83% ( 0.01) | 61.7% ( -0.07) |
| Both teams to score 48.91% ( 0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.83% ( 0.03) | 48.16% ( -0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.68% ( 0.03) | 70.32% ( -0.03) |
| Cheltenham Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.6% ( 0.09) | 42.4% ( -0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.22% ( 0.08) | 78.78% ( -0.08) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.91% ( -0.01) | 15.09% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.38% ( -0.02) | 43.62% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cheltenham Town | Draw | Derby County |
| 1-0 @ 5.49% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 4.45% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 2.36% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 1.27% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.2% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.69% Total : 16.47% | 1-1 @ 10.38% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.4% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 4.21% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.84% Total : 21.83% | 0-1 @ 12.09% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 11.44% ( -0.02)1-2 @ 9.82% ( 0)0-3 @ 7.21% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 6.19% ( -0)0-4 @ 3.41% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 2.93% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.66% ( 0.01)0-5 @ 1.29% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.26% ( 0)1-5 @ 1.11% ( -0)Other @ 2.29% Total : 61.69% |
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