Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 61.7%. A draw had a probability of 21.8% and a win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 16.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.44%) and 1-2 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.38%), while for a Cheltenham Town win it was 1-0 (5.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood.
0.06) 
-0.07) 
