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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 61.7%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for Torquay United had a probability of 17.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.81%) and 0-1 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.61%), while for a Torquay United win it was 2-1 (4.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Torquay United | Draw | Derby County |
17.72% ( 1.16) | 20.58% ( 0.65) | 61.7% ( -1.8) |
| Both teams to score 55.66% ( 0.21) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.51% ( -0.9) | 40.49% ( 0.9) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.13% ( -0.93) | 62.87% ( 0.94) |
| Torquay United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.7% ( 0.8) | 36.3% ( -0.8) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.91% ( 0.8) | 73.08% ( -0.8) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.37% ( -0.78) | 12.63% ( 0.78) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 61.24% ( -1.63) | 38.76% ( 1.63) |
| Score Analysis |
| Torquay United | Draw | Derby County |
| 2-1 @ 4.87% ( 0.26) 1-0 @ 4.65% ( 0.29)2-0 @ 2.35% ( 0.19)3-2 @ 1.7% ( 0.08)3-1 @ 1.65% ( 0.12)Other @ 2.51% Total : 17.72% | 1-1 @ 9.61% ( 0.32) 2-2 @ 5.04% ( 0.12)0-0 @ 4.58% ( 0.19)3-3 @ 1.17% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.17% Total : 20.58% | 1-2 @ 9.95% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 9.81% ( -0.19)0-1 @ 9.48% ( 0.11)1-3 @ 6.86% ( -0.19)0-3 @ 6.77% ( -0.34)1-4 @ 3.55% ( -0.21)0-4 @ 3.5% ( -0.29)2-3 @ 3.48% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 1.8% ( -0.07)1-5 @ 1.47% ( -0.14)0-5 @ 1.45% ( -0.17)Other @ 3.59% Total : 61.7% |
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