Neither side will enter this match in the best of form, but we are struggling to look past Birmingham when it comes to this third-round contest. The Blues will have superior quality across the pitch, and we are expecting the Championship outfit to progress to the next round of the competition.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Forest Green Rovers win with a probability of 45.62%. A win for Birmingham City had a probability of 28.39% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Forest Green Rovers win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.1%) and 2-0 (8.24%). The likeliest Birmingham City win was 0-1 (8.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Birmingham City would win this match.
0.08) 
-0.12) 
