SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 49.85%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Hartlepool United had a probability of 25.02%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.45%) and 0-2 (9.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.95%), while for a Hartlepool United win it was 1-0 (7.56%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Stoke City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Hartlepool United | Draw | Stoke City |
25.02% ( 0.86) | 25.13% ( 0.52) | 49.85% ( -1.38) |
| Both teams to score 51.46% ( -0.71) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.79% ( -1.36) | 51.2% ( 1.36) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.96% ( -1.2) | 73.04% ( 1.2) |
| Hartlepool United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.78% ( 0.01) | 35.22% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.02% ( 0.01) | 71.98% ( -0.01) |
| Stoke City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.44% ( -1.11) | 20.56% ( 1.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.92% ( -1.78) | 53.07% ( 1.78) |
| Score Analysis |
| Hartlepool United | Draw | Stoke City |
| 1-0 @ 7.56% ( 0.41) 2-1 @ 6.24% ( 0.13)2-0 @ 3.94% ( 0.21)3-1 @ 2.17% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 1.72% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 1.37% ( 0.07)Other @ 2.03% Total : 25.02% | 1-1 @ 11.95% ( 0.25) 0-0 @ 7.24% ( 0.39)2-2 @ 4.93% ( -0.07)3-3 @ 0.91% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.1% Total : 25.13% | 0-1 @ 11.45% ( 0.23) 1-2 @ 9.45% ( -0.13)0-2 @ 9.06% ( -0.13)1-3 @ 4.99% ( -0.24)0-3 @ 4.78% ( -0.24)2-3 @ 2.6% ( -0.13)1-4 @ 1.97% ( -0.17)0-4 @ 1.89% ( -0.16)2-4 @ 1.03% ( -0.09)Other @ 2.62% Total : 49.84% |
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