Having reached the FA Cup third round, Hartlepool's form is not as bad as it seems at first glance. Nevertheless, Crawley appear to be a team who are on the up, and they are playing with enough belief to edge this contest by the odd goal in three.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crawley Town win with a probability of 50.89%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Hartlepool United had a probability of 24.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crawley Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.54%) and 2-0 (9.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.81%), while for a Hartlepool United win it was 0-1 (7.31%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood.
-0.09) 
0.04) 
