While the fairytale will be on the forefront of everyone's minds, this is one of the biggest mismatches in the first round when looking at league placings, and Hereford may come unstuck against opposition of such higher quality.
Portsmouth should return to a largely strong starting XI after making multiple changes for the EFL Trophy tie in midweek.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portsmouth win with a probability of 74.47%. A draw had a probability of 15.7% and a win for Hereford United had a probability of 9.78%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portsmouth win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (9.7%) and 0-1 (9.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.43%), while for a Hereford United win it was 1-0 (2.99%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Portsmouth would win this match.
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