SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 50.76%. A win for Villarreal had a probability of 27.44% and a draw had a probability of 21.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.68%) and 2-0 (6.6%). The likeliest Villarreal win was 1-2 (6.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.42%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Villarreal |
50.76% ( 0.04) | 21.8% ( 0.05) | 27.44% ( -0.1) |
| Both teams to score 65.14% ( -0.29) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.81% ( -0.34) | 34.19% ( 0.34) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43.92% ( -0.39) | 56.08% ( 0.39) |
| Borussia Dortmund Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.16% ( -0.11) | 13.84% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 58.8% ( -0.21) | 41.2% ( 0.21) |
| Villarreal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.6% ( -0.24) | 24.39% ( 0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.19% ( -0.34) | 58.81% ( 0.34) |
| Score Analysis |
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Villarreal |
| 2-1 @ 9.31% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 6.68% ( 0.09)2-0 @ 6.6% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 6.14% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 4.35% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 4.33% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 3.04% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 2.15% ( 0)4-2 @ 2.14% ( -0.03)5-1 @ 1.2% ( -0.01)4-3 @ 1.01% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.81% Total : 50.76% | 1-1 @ 9.42% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 6.57% ( -0.03)0-0 @ 3.38% ( 0.06)3-3 @ 2.04% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.4% Total : 21.8% | 1-2 @ 6.64% ( -0) 0-1 @ 4.76% ( 0.05)0-2 @ 3.36% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 3.13% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 3.09% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 1.58% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.1% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 1.09% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.68% Total : 27.44% |
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