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Champions League | Final
Jun 1, 2024 at 8pm UK
Wembley Stadium
RM

Dortmund
0 - 2
Real Madrid


Schlotterbeck (40'), Sabitzer (43'), Hummels (79')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Carvajal (74'), Junior (83')
Junior (35')

Form, Standings, Stats

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 52.33%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 26.65% and a draw had a probability of 21%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (6.41%) and 0-2 (6.27%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 (6.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.72%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.

Result
Borussia DortmundDrawReal Madrid
26.65% (-0.101 -0.1) 21.01% (-0.042999999999999 -0.04) 52.33% (0.142 0.14)
Both teams to score 67.39% (0.064999999999998 0.06)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
69.03% (0.124 0.12)30.97% (-0.124 -0.12)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
47.65% (0.147 0.15)52.35% (-0.148 -0.15)
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.79% (0.0010000000000048 0)23.21% (-0.0019999999999989 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.89% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)57.11% (-0.00099999999999767 -0)
Real Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.76% (0.082999999999998 0.08)12.24% (-0.084 -0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
62.05% (0.17599999999999 0.18)37.95% (-0.177 -0.18)
Score Analysis
    Borussia Dortmund 26.65%
    Real Madrid 52.33%
    Draw 21.02%
Borussia DortmundDrawReal Madrid
2-1 @ 6.37% (-0.023 -0.02)
1-0 @ 4.15% (-0.028 -0.03)
3-2 @ 3.26% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
3-1 @ 3.1% (-0.011 -0.01)
2-0 @ 3.03% (-0.021 -0.02)
3-0 @ 1.48% (-0.01 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.19%
4-1 @ 1.13% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 2.96%
Total : 26.65%
1-1 @ 8.72% (-0.031000000000001 -0.03)
2-2 @ 6.69% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
0-0 @ 2.84% (-0.02 -0.02)
3-3 @ 2.28% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 0.5%
Total : 21.02%
1-2 @ 9.15% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
1-3 @ 6.41% (0.019 0.02)
0-2 @ 6.27% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
0-1 @ 5.97% (-0.022 -0.02)
2-3 @ 4.68% (0.014 0.01)
0-3 @ 4.39% (0.012 0.01)
1-4 @ 3.37% (0.021 0.02)
2-4 @ 2.46% (0.015 0.02)
0-4 @ 2.3% (0.014 0.01)
1-5 @ 1.41% (0.013 0.01)
3-4 @ 1.2% (0.008 0.01)
2-5 @ 1.03% (0.01 0.01)
0-5 @ 0.97% (0.009 0.01)
Other @ 2.73%
Total : 52.33%

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Form Guide
Last Game: Dortmund 4-0 Darmstadt
Saturday, May 18 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Mainz 3-0 Dortmund
Saturday, May 11 at 5.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: PSG 0-1 Dortmund
Tuesday, May 7 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Dortmund 5-1 Augsburg
Saturday, May 4 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Dortmund 1-0 PSG
Wednesday, May 1 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: RB Leipzig 4-1 Dortmund
Saturday, April 27 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Real Madrid 0-0 Betis
Saturday, May 25 at 8pm in La Liga
Last Game: Villarreal 4-4 Real Madrid
Sunday, May 19 at 6pm in La Liga
Last Game: Real Madrid 5-0 Alaves
Tuesday, May 14 at 8.30pm in La Liga
Last Game: Granada 0-4 Real Madrid
Saturday, May 11 at 5.30pm in La Liga
Last Game: Real Madrid 2-1 Bayern
Wednesday, May 8 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Real Madrid 3-0 Cadiz
Saturday, May 4 at 3.15pm in La Liga


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