SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 52.33%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 26.65% and a draw had a probability of 21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (6.41%) and 0-2 (6.27%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 (6.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.72%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Real Madrid |
26.65% ( -0.1) | 21.01% ( -0.04) | 52.33% ( 0.14) |
| Both teams to score 67.39% ( 0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 69.03% ( 0.12) | 30.97% ( -0.12) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 47.65% ( 0.15) | 52.35% ( -0.15) |
| Borussia Dortmund Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.79% ( 0) | 23.21% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.89% ( -0) | 57.11% ( -0) |
| Real Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.76% ( 0.08) | 12.24% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 62.05% ( 0.18) | 37.95% ( -0.18) |
| Score Analysis |
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Real Madrid |
| 2-1 @ 6.37% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 4.15% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 3.26% ( -0)3-1 @ 3.1% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 3.03% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 1.48% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.19% 4-1 @ 1.13% ( -0)Other @ 2.96% Total : 26.65% | 1-1 @ 8.72% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 6.69% ( -0)0-0 @ 2.84% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 2.28% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.5% Total : 21.02% | 1-2 @ 9.15% ( -0) 1-3 @ 6.41% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 6.27% ( -0)0-1 @ 5.97% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 4.68% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 4.39% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 3.37% ( 0.02)2-4 @ 2.46% ( 0.02)0-4 @ 2.3% ( 0.01)1-5 @ 1.41% ( 0.01)3-4 @ 1.2% ( 0.01)2-5 @ 1.03% ( 0.01)0-5 @ 0.97% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.73% Total : 52.33% |
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