SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 44.01%. A win for Cerezo Osaka had a probability of 32.78% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.05%) and 0-2 (6.11%). The likeliest Cerezo Osaka win was 2-1 (7.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.36%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Cerezo Osaka | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
32.78% ( 2.05) | 23.21% ( -0.01) | 44.01% ( -2.04) |
| Both teams to score 63.36% ( 1.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.03% ( 0.94) | 37.96% ( -0.95) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.77% ( 1) | 60.22% ( -1) |
| Cerezo Osaka Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.98% ( 1.67) | 23.02% ( -1.67) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.17% ( 2.39) | 56.83% ( -2.39) |
| Borussia Dortmund Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.31% ( -0.43) | 17.69% ( 0.43) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.67% ( -0.76) | 48.33% ( 0.76) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cerezo Osaka | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2-1 @ 7.61% ( 0.28) 1-0 @ 5.98% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 4.39% ( 0.22)3-1 @ 3.73% ( 0.31)3-2 @ 3.23% ( 0.23)3-0 @ 2.15% ( 0.21)4-1 @ 1.37% ( 0.17)4-2 @ 1.19% ( 0.14)Other @ 3.14% Total : 32.78% | 1-1 @ 10.36% ( -0.1) 2-2 @ 6.59% ( 0.16)0-0 @ 4.07% ( -0.19)3-3 @ 1.86% ( 0.11)Other @ 0.33% Total : 23.21% | 1-2 @ 8.97% ( -0.23) 0-1 @ 7.05% ( -0.43)0-2 @ 6.11% ( -0.47)1-3 @ 5.18% ( -0.21)2-3 @ 3.81% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 3.53% ( -0.32)1-4 @ 2.24% ( -0.12)2-4 @ 1.65% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 1.53% ( -0.16)Other @ 3.94% Total : 44.01% |
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